In November 2016 I wrote "The average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart throwing chimpanzee!   They were no better than random guessing. They tended to have one idea and regardless of evidence that cast doubt on this idea/theory apply it. See more at "Analytics- the art and science of decision making"."

This from a study run over 25 years to test the validity of forecasts from 284 serious experts . See "Cognitive bias that distorts analysis"

It gets worse!

Bill Gates was shocked by the insights in the book "Factfullness" that show chimpanzees make better judgements than humans almost every time whatever the country and even by experts in illustrious institutes. Judgements about vital matters like population growth, health outcomes and life expectancy. Judgements on which they vote and share opinions. e.g.

What is the life expectancy of the world today? : -

  • 50 Years
  • 60 Years
  • 70 Years

Wonder what your answer is?

Bill Gates realised he was wrong to categorise the world into Developed and Developing Countries. Even a man as diligent and analytical as Gates.

Over 13 questions only 10% of people answered better than chimpanzees!

If ever there were a reason for more priority given to effective data and analytics I cannot think of one. Especially as the same is probably true for business and commerce.

Follow the link, read the book and challenge your biases and analytics