In November 2016 I wrote "The average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart throwing chimpanzee! This conclusion was from a 25 year study by Philip Tetlock co-author of "Super-Forecasting The art & science of prediction" They were no better than random guessing. They tended to have one idea and regardless of evidence that cast doubt on this idea/theory apply it. See more at "Analytics- the art and science of decision making"."
This from a study run over 25 years to test the validity of forecasts from 284 serious experts . See "Cognitive bias that distorts analysis"
It gets worse!
Bill Gates was shocked by the insights in the book "Factfullness" that also showed chimpanzees make better judgements than humans almost every time whatever the country and even by experts in illustrious institutes. Judgements about vital matters like population growth, health outcomes and life expectancy. Judgements on which they vote and share opinions. e.g.
What is the life expectancy of the world today? : -
- 50 Years
- 60 Years
- 70 Years
Wonder what your answer is ( see today's answer at bottom of article) - this question was 6 years ago remember?
Bill Gates realised he was wrong to categorise the world into Developed and Developing Countries. Rosling Even a man as diligent and analytical as Gates.
Rosling proposed analysis in these categories ( again remember this was 2019) -
Level 1: less than $2 a day
Level 2: $2–$8 a day
Level 3: $8–$32 a day
Level 4: $32+ a day
Over 13 questions only 10% of professional people answered better than chimpanzees! These were ‘experts’ responsible for policy in their specialist areas eg working for the UN or government bodies.
If ever there were a reason for more priority given to effective data and analytics I cannot think of one. Especially as the same is probably true for business and commerce.
Follow the link, read the book and challenge your biases and analytics
The bulk of the book is devoted to ten instincts that keep us from seeing the world factfully. These range from the fear instinct (we pay more attention to scary things) to the size instinct (standalone numbers often look more impressive than they really are) to the gap instinct (most people fall between two extremes). With each one, he offers practical advice about how to overcome our innate biases. Gates Notes Insiders can get a free preview of the gap instinctnalytics chapter here:
